US may see underpopulation, not overpopulation due falling birth rate
In 2020, the U.S. birthrate fell to its lowest level in 35 years, well below the 2.1 babies per woman required to feed our population through birth alone.
“What we learned from the great recession is that every 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate lowers births by 1 percent,” said Phil Levine, economics professor at Wellesley College.
His research implies that there will likely be a Covid baby bust instead of a baby boom in the US. This means fewer American-born workers and consumers, which could slow long-term economic growth.
The US population is now more than 330 million people. and worldwide there are almost 7.8 billion. Researchers point to immigration as an easy way to protect the size of the US population.
“The most popular place for immigrants in the world remains the United States,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs. “It’s still that shining city on a hill.”
The World Bank estimates that by 2050 there will be 143 million additional climate migrants from Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.
NGOs like Population Matters try to ensure the proper distribution of resources while protecting the environment and all people when the world’s population changes.
“We are particularly concerned that every country in the world can, wherever possible, allow people to move to their countries, and in particular can accommodate refugees and asylum seekers,” said Robin Maynard, director of population affairs.
Analysts continue to assume that the world population will increase in the next 100 years. After that, researchers like Notre Dame University economics professor Kasey Buckles expect fertility to weaken or decline. She attributes the development to a falling birth rate in emerging countries.
“We see that fertility tends to decrease as countries develop. If development spreads around the world, we assume this will happen. Therefore, we assume that fertility or actual population in the near future it will decrease worldwide a hundred years, “said Buckles.
The world population is projected to peak at 9.7 billion by 2064 and drop back to 8.8 billion by 2100. Allowing more immigration to the US will help maintain a steady influx of workers and consumers and support economic growth.
American companies can also turn to the baby boomer generation to continue participating in the economy as workers and consumers.
“The biggest power group in the economy going forward will be older women because there are many of them and there are more every day,” Bricker said.
The most successful companies will be able to adapt to changing population demographics.
“Ultimately, people matter. The more people there are, the more economic activity there is,” Levine said.